Running Baseball Betting Haps

Discussion in 'The Other 29' started by IWMB, Apr 2, 2017.

  1. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Going to start betting on baseball and tracking my progress here, similar to Rusty's sports betting thread a few years ago. Mentioned that I bet on the Cubs to win game 7, and since then did decent enough on football and hit the bonus payout, so I cashed out my initial buy in and am playing with house money. My units will be much smaller than Rusty's, don't have a crazy amount bankrolled.

    I'll be using a Nightengale system, doubling my bet after losses to try to get back to even. I will start with the 1st game of a series, then take that team until they win. If they win the 1st game, I'll might sit out until the new series begin. I'll pretty much always be taking dogs.

    1st bet:
    STL +114: 1 unit
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2017
  2. CaptainBallz
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    CaptainBallz Windowlickin' Good

  3. Cheeses
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    Cheeses Do not be afraid to crush the cucks with your mind Cupcake Mod

  4. whitesox901
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    whitesox901 Banjo and Kazui's great adventure

  5. zmz
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    zmz By the Banks of the River Chicago

  6. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    NEVER. A. DOUBT.
  7. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    RUNNING TOTAL: +1.14 Units

    PIT+143 @ BOS
    1 unit
  8. CaptainBallz
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    CaptainBallz Windowlickin' Good

    Captivating shit, IWMB. Just riveting.
    Cheeses, Retarded Ox and zmz like this.
  9. Prope
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    Prope RIP soxwon

    Good luck IWMB. I will be a frequent lurker in this thread.
  10. y2chae
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    y2chae Panda

    Where's the "Ballz hates this" pic when you need it?
  11. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    :fart:

    Really that hard to ignore it? That's what I do for at least half the threads on this shitty board.
    sycked likes this.
  12. CaptainBallz
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    CaptainBallz Windowlickin' Good

    Hasn't been that many new posts since last night, so yes... hard to ignore.

    2 units.
    chops likes this.
  13. Cheeses
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    Cheeses Do not be afraid to crush the cucks with your mind Cupcake Mod

  14. SABRSox
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    SABRSox Hollywood Mega-Hunk Bob Balaban Cupcake Mod

    I'd like to double down on

    :greatstory:

    Is that 2 pass units?
    CaptainBallz, Cheeses and chops like this.
  15. Alanzo
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    Alanzo Well-Known Member

    Do you have a bookie?
    chops likes this.
  16. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Nah, I use Bovada
  17. Prope
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    Prope RIP soxwon

    What do you mean by units?
  18. zmz
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    zmz By the Banks of the River Chicago

    $5 a unit for iwmb?
  19. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    http://soxhaps.com/threads/hosed-sportsbook-haps.16836/#post-786400
    Basically, 1 unit is my minimum bet, and it will increase from there. This way we can track progress without the dollars actually mattering - whether 1 unit was $1 or $1000, the formula is the same.

    :richierich:
  20. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    OVERALL RECORD: 1-1
    RUNNING TOTAL: +0.14 Units


    Seattle (+145) @ Houston - 1 unit
  21. y2chae
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    y2chae Panda

    Do you go into negative units or will it "reset"?
  22. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    I'll be at negative if I lose this one. That's when I'll start doubling (2,4,8...) to get back to where I was to start the 'round' (+1.14).

    The thing with taking dogs is you only need to win about 40% to be profitable. So there will be a lot of losses, the key is not to lose 5-6 in a row. That's while I'll take the same team a lot of the time, but with the Pirates off and facing Sale tomorrow, I'd rather avoid that.
  23. skottyj
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    skottyj Owner of Many Baseball Hats

    IWMB won't tell us how big his unit is and I'm totally ok with that. #nohomo
  24. y2chae
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    y2chae Panda

    Being serious here- I know this guy, who is a complete fucktard, who knows his brothers penis size, brags about it and thinks it's normal that he even knows the size of his brothers penis. Fed has met this guy.
    CaptainBallz likes this.
  25. skottyj
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    skottyj Owner of Many Baseball Hats

  26. chops
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    chops never met prope

    Let's just say that betting on dogs every day isn't all that awesome.

    First, dogs that won in 2016 paid on average of +135 for their wins and won 41% of the games in which they were dogs. You have to basically win 42.5% of your games just to break even.

    Yeah, you're only picking one and apparently generally the same team.

    A. only 11 teams were profitable as dogs last season
    B. only 10 teams were profitable all season last season regardless of the odds


    If you're really looking to make cash, stop betting the pussy dogs at +141 or whatever. Only bet the dogs that are +200 or greater, but less than +300. You'll end up on top. Doing that last season you'd be up 807 on the year assuming 100 bets across the board.

    Texas was also the best team to bet on last season +3132 for the season.
    Sox were -633
    Cubbies +299
    Orioles and Tigers only other teams to profit you over a grand.

    carry on, dude.
  27. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Maybe I wasn't totally clear. I'm not going to take the same team for the whole season, I'll take them for a series. The idea is to not get swept.

    Let's stick with the Pirates example.

    Game 1: +143, 1 unit - LOSS
    Game 2: Let's tomorrow they are +160, 1 unit - LOSS - down 2 units
    Game 3: +135, 2 units - WIN

    I got my 2 units back plus .70 in profit, and only won 1 of 3. Now I can reset on a new series.

    So the season long totals don't really matter.
  28. zmz
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    zmz By the Banks of the River Chicago

  29. chops
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    chops never met prope

    Or game 3: LOSS, now it's -300 and you're hoping for 2/3 for the next series.

    Or win game 2, you're even and then down 100 after a game 3 loss.
  30. y2chae
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    y2chae Panda

    I don't think he plans to bet dogs every series
  31. chops
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    chops never met prope

    :orly:
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  32. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Why do I need 2 of 3? That's the point of the Nightengale system, I'm always looking to get everything back, plus the little bit extra from whatever I'm getting on the line.

    If I win game 2 I don't bet game 3. I wait until the new series begin and find a new team that should be able to take a game out of 3.
  33. y2chae
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    y2chae Panda

  34. chops
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    chops never met prope

    By Nightengale do you mean Martingale?

    That works only if you have a decent bankroll or a nice credit line with your book.
  35. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    :larussa:
  36. zmz
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    zmz By the Banks of the River Chicago

    I predict utter failure

    :mjpopcorn:
  37. chops
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    chops never met prope

    If not utter failure, just a long waste of time to lose or win a few bucks.

    I've spent too many years trying to find a good baseball betting strategy - there isn't one.
  38. SABRSox
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    SABRSox Hollywood Mega-Hunk Bob Balaban Cupcake Mod

    A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?
    Iwritecode and chops like this.
  39. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Well yeah, the whole reason I'm doing it is to waste time. Want to pay a bit better attention to the game as a whole since the SOX won't be worth watching, and I'm not into fantasy baseball.
  40. chops
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    chops never met prope

    That's one way to do it.

    I gambled for too many years and the bullshit caring about shitty teams and shitty games isn't worth it. After, so many years, I quit and was about even on the whole. Had some nice big paydays and some nice big paydays the other way.

    I'd advise against it.

    It sure as shit makes it more interesting, but when you're up until midnight watching the Reds play in San Diego because you have some cash on the game, you should quit.

    Good luck, but I'd find a better way to get into paying better attention. (Although, I guess it might be the only way, cause I sure as shit don't follow anything like I used to)

    :shrug:

    Good luck again.
    DepaulSox and maurice like this.
  41. chops
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    chops never met prope

    So now you're down .86 units?

    What's the bet today?
  42. Prope
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    Prope RIP soxwon

    You should probably tank this season in order to set yourself up better next season.
    itsnotrequired, Fuller, IWMB and 2 others like this.
  43. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Correct.

    I was going to stick with Seattle, but now they're -105 so I don't know yet.
  44. chops
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    chops never met prope

    Houston -120
    Braves +200
    Cubs -130

    is what I would bet.

    I really hate your strategy by the way.

    HATE IT
  45. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    You're gonna bet on a postponed game?

    :greatjob:
    Cheeses likes this.
  46. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    And Houston's starter hasn't pitched in a regular season game since last April

    :pass:
  47. chops
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    chops never met prope

    fucking cucks and their postponements.

    I guess I take Boston -170 in that case

    :shrug:

    2 units Houston
    1 unit Braves
    1 unit Boston
  48. skottyj
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    skottyj Owner of Many Baseball Hats

    I'm eating a chicken caesar wrap from Cellars with fire sauce from Taco Bell. You can bet on that being a good lunch.
    CaptainBallz and chops like this.
  49. chops
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    chops never met prope

    +500

    Taking the wife to Alinea now, done for the season.

    carryon, my fellow jew.
    Deuce likes this.
  50. Cheeses
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    Cheeses Do not be afraid to crush the cucks with your mind Cupcake Mod

    :notbad:

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